It might feel early, but preparation is everything.
Every year, as winter pressures build, GP practices and PCNs find themselves scrambling to fill rota gaps. In March 2024, GP teams delivered almost 30 million appointments in a single month, which was a 23% increase compared to March 2019. By December 2024, practices and PCNs provided an estimated 28.4 million appointments, with nearly half booked on the same day. That kind of surge not only stretches clinical teams but also exposes gaps in planning.
The result? Costly last-minute agency bookings, stressed practice staff and a greater risk of burnout across the workforce.
However, with the right preparation, practices can take the sting out of winter and build resilience before the peak arrives.
Why do practices struggle every winter?
1. Demand spikes are predictable.
Seasonal flu, respiratory infections and cold weather-related illnesses consistently push patient numbers higher between December and March.
2. Late bookings cost more.
When locum cover is secured at short notice, higher rates are often charged and choice is limited.
3. Burnout creates a cycle.
Permanent staff already under pressure are asked to plug gaps. This leads to more sick leave and further strain on teams.
4. Budgets aren’t always aligned.
ARRS funding deadlines and year-end budget cycles mean some PCNs discover underspends too late, or worse, overspend on reactive staffing fixes.
3 Steps to Take Now
1. Review your rota early
Look at the next 3 – 4 months and flag any known risks: planned leave, training days and historic sick leave patterns. Practices that build a rota buffer now will avoid December panic.
2. Maximise your ARRS budget
ARRS can provide vital workforce support. However, in 2023/24, PCNs across England collectively underspent their ARRS allocation by £88 million, which represented about 6 percent of the £1.41 billion available that year. Underspend of that magnitude is not just a missed opportunity, it’s a risk to your team’s resilience this winter.
3. Balance locum and permanent hires
Locums are essential for flexibility, but permanent hires reduce long-term costs and provide stability. Even one additional permanent nurse or ANP can save thousands in agency fees over a year, while reducing reliance on emergency cover.
Don’t leave it until December
Winter pressures don’t wait. The practices that prepare now are the ones that avoid last-minute panic.
At Vela Medical Group, every consultant has over a decade of hands-on experience in Primary Care staffing. We know the patterns, we understand the pressures, and we can help you plan ahead – whether that’s securing reliable locum cover or building your permanent team.
If you want to secure reliable locum or permanent cover ahead of winter, speak with us today!
